Sunday, July 5, 2015

COULD WE FIT THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE WORLD INTO THE STATE OF DELAWARE?


For  those  of  you  laying  awake  in  bed  at  night  worrying  that  guys  with  guns  might  break  into  your  home  to  herd  literally  everyone  into  the  State  of  Delaware,  and  then  actually  join  them  there,  this  is  an  extremely  important  question!   So,  let's  deal  with  it.

First,  how  many  people  are  there?

Well,  those  babies  keep  poppin'  out.   The  world  population  keeps  going  up,  up,  up ...

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/


I'll  round  the  number  off  upwards  to  7.33  billion,  to  keep  this  article  relevant  for  a  few  weeks.   That's   seven  billion  330  million   (7,330,000,000)  people.

Next,    how  big  is  the  State  of  Delaware?

That  turns  out  to  be  an  extremely  difficult  question  to  answer.

Google  itself  will  tell  you  that  Delaware  is  2,489  square  miles  in  size.  Wikipedia's  estimate  of  the  total  area  is  about  one-quarter  of  a  square  mile  less.

But,  that  number  is  shrinking  every  year.    Why?  Global  warming  is  now  increasing  ocean  depth  about  1/32  of  an  inch  per  year,  at  our  latitude.    That  translates  out  to  a  surprising  loss  of  land   each  year,  for  the  State  of  Delaware.

Delaware  has  a  "mean  elevation"  (an  "average  elevation"  above  sea  level)  of  60  feet.  Since  the  entire  east  coast  of  Delaware  is  on  tidal  water  --  the  Atlantic  Ocean  and  Delaware  Bay  --  we  can  assume  with  relative  statistical  accuracy  that  Delaware  slopes  upward  from  the  east  coast   westward  to  the  western  boundary,    which  is  120  feet  above  sea  level   (since  60  feet  is  an  average,  right?).  Since  the  state  is  96  miles  long,  and  since  2489  square  miles  / 96  miles  long  =  25.93  miles  wide,  we'll  use  that  as  the  base  of  our  average  slope  running  from  Delaware's  coast  inland  to  the  Western  Boundary.   25.93  miles  =  136,910  feet.   If  we  do  a  rise-over-the-run  slope  calculation  --  remember  Algebra,  which  your  teacher  said  would  save  your  life  someday?  --  we  get  1 / 1,141.   So,  for  every  1/32d   of  an  inch  UP  the  ocean  depth  increases  each  year,    the  water  comes  IN  1,141  1/32d's   of  an  inch,  or  rough  44  inches.   Let's  say  the  length  of  the  coast  is  exactly  equal  to  the  State's  length.  (Coves  and  estuaries  make  the  coast  effectively  much,  much  longer,    but  I'd  blow  a  cork  if  I  tried  to  calculate  the  "true"  coastline  of  Delaware,  taking  those  things  into  account.)   So,   let's  say  we  have  a  rectangle   96  miles  long  and  44  inches  wide.  That's  how  much  land  Delaware  loses  each  year  to  global  warming   --   at  least!  96  miles  x  5280  feet / mile  x  12  inches  =  6,082,560  inches  in  length.  If  we  multiply  that  by  44  inches  of  rectangular  width,  we  get  267,632,640  square  inches  of  land  lost  every  year  to  global  warming.   That  comes  out  to  1,858,560  square  feet.  If  we  divide  that  by  27,878,400  square  feet  per  square  mile,  we  discover  that  Delaware  is  losing  about  .0666666666666666666666666  square  miles  per  year  to  global  warming.     Hey,  man,  that's  like,   uh,  a  really  eschatological   number,  man!  It  scares  me!

Back  to  "reality" ...

So,  how  accurate  that  number  describing  Delaware's  total  area  is  depends  on  how  old  it  is.  It's  going  down  about  7%  of  a  square  mile  each  year.  (Actually,  way  more,  because  of  the  true-length-of-coastline  business,  above.)

Presumably,    none  of  our  guests  to  Delaware  --  all  of  mankind,  remember   --  wants  to  stand  in  a  lake  (although  to  tell  the  truth  they  might  be  the  lucky  ones  in  our  hypothetical).  So,  we  have  to  back  Delaware's  540.18  square  miles  of  water  out  of  the  equation.     That  leaves  1,948.82  square  miles  of  standing  space  in  Delaware.

Now,  literally  speaking,  that  changes  more-or-less  constantly  --  with  the  tide!  As  the  tide  comes  IN,  the  number  of  square  miles  SHRINKS!     As  the  tide  goes  OUT,  the  number  of  square  miles  GROWS,  right?   Also,    local  and  not-so-local  storm  surges  --  special  tides  generated  by  low  pressure  weather  systems  which  generate   sometimes  pretty  visible  mountains  of  water  in  the  oceans,  bays   and  estuaries  --  vastly  affect  tides,  and  therefore  the  number  of  square  miles  of  Delaware  unencumbered  by  the  seas.

Since  knowing  what's  happening  in  the  tide  department   is  just  too  complex  to  guess  at,    we'll  just  assume   that   guests  standing  on  Delaware's  coasts  will  be  standing  midway  down  the  beaches  between  the  high  point  and  low  points  of  the  tides,  and  that  they  don 't  mind  getting  their  footsies  wet  when  the  tide  comes  in,  and  that  that  achieves  1,948.82  square  miles  of  area.

There's  another  calculation  problem   --  ups  and  downs  in  the  terrain.

It  is  said  that  if  one  got  an  enormous  clothes  iron  and  used  it  to  flatten-out  mountainous  Colorado,  it  would  have  more  surface  area  than  any  other  state  of  the  Union.

Perhaps  so.

Well,  Delaware  would  also  get  slightly  larger,  if  ironed-out.    In  other  words,   1,948.82  square  miles  is  actually  a  "projection"  --  the  area  you  would  see  from  space,  looking  down,  which  doesn't  account  for  additional  area  from  Delaware's  relatively  few  hills.

We'll  ignore  that  factor,  also,  and  assume  that  1,948.82  square  miles  is  perfectly  flat.

There's  one  last  problem  to  consider.

If  you  look  on  any  good  map  of  the  Delaware  Bay,    you  will  see  that  the  boundary  of  all  of  Newcastle  County,  Delaware  runs  clear  across  the  Delaware  River  over  to  the  coast  of  New  Jersey.  I  used  to  think   that  there  were  only  two  points  where  the  Army  Corps  of  Engineers  dumped  dredge  spoil  dredged  off  the  bottom  of  the  Delaware  to  make  way  for  larger  ships,  onto  the  coast  of  new  Jersey,  so  that,  because  they  were  on  the  Delaware  side  of  the  border,  they  were  actually  additions  to  the  territory  of  Delaware,  though  the  new  acreage  is  attached  to  New  Jersey,  not  Delaware.  In  fact,  it  turns  out  that  Google  Maps  portrays  almost  the  entire  coast  of  New  Jersey  along  the  Delaware  River  up  to  the  latitude  of  northernmost  Delaware,  where  the  famous  Twelve  Mile  Circle  crosses  the  Delaware  River  into  New  Jersey,   as  belonging  to  Delaware,  apparently  due  to  alluvial  accretions  over  the  centuries,  implicitly  pre-empting  the  Rule  of  Alluvial  Accretions  (which  says  that  alluvial  accretions  increase  the  riparian  lands  of  the  abutting  owner).  Though,  technically,  doing  this  is  probably  correct,  since  Interstate  Compacts (one  of  which  created  the  Delaware/New  Jersey  border)   are  generally  viewed  as  being  above  state  law  (which  would  include  the  common  law  Rule  of  Alluvial  Accretions)  but  inferior  to  federal  law,  God  knows  what  the   United  States  Supreme  Court  would  say,  since  we  all  know  that  NOTHING  binds  the  United  States  Supreme  Court,  right?  (In  reality,  they're  autocratic  kings,  right?)

In  any  event,  that's  another   variable  we  will  ignore,  because  it's  just  too  complex.  Delaware  refuses  to  cross  the  river  and  police  it,  anyway  (with  the  consequence,   according  to  one  urban  legend,  that  for  years  the  Mafia  buried  their  victims  in  Finn's  Point,  the  largest  tract  of  Delaware  land  on  the  Jersey  side  of  the  Delaware,  so  that  neither  state  would  bother  looking  there  for  grizzly  evidence.)  (And  here's  a  good  argument,  this  time  for  Pennsville  Township  Municipal  Court:  Suppose   a  really  old  geezer  who  has  trouble  holding  his  water  goes  for  a  walk  on  the  banks  of  the  Delaware  in  Pennsville  Township  between  Finns  Point  and  the  Delaware  Memorial  Bridge   --  the  famous  "Twin  Bridges."  He  walks  out  onto  the  spit  of  land   at  the  end  of  Ferry  Road,    drops  his  pants,   and  pees  in  broad  daylight,  in  view  of  all  of  the  neighbors.   Technically,  he  perpetrated  that  heinous  act  100%  in  the  State  of  Delaware  [unless  he  aimed  east,  not  west].  Is  he  prosecutable  in  Pennsville  Township  Municipal  Court?  Do  Pennsville  Township  Police  have  to  extradite  him  to  New  Jersey  to  process  him  in  to  the  system?)

At  any  rate,   back  to  "reality"  and  the  main  problem,  again:    Fitting  the  entire  world's  population  in  Delaware:  Can  it  be  done?



From  here  on  end,  it's  a  simple  fraction:   7,330,000,000 people / 1,948.82 square  miles  =  roughly  3,761,250  people  per  square  mile.  Since  each  square  mile  has  27,878,400  square  feet,    each  person  would  have  27,878,400 / 3,761,250  square  feet,  or  7.41  square  feet,  to  dwell  in.

That  seems  doable  --  so  long  as  nobody  lays  down,    and  that  old  geezer  from  Pennsville  Township  doesn't  cause  problems.

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